HS Dent
I have been following the work of Harry S. Dent for the past 3 years and subscribe to his investment newsletter at hsdent.com. Dent argues that economic growth, employment and inflation are correlated with shifts in a societies demography and innovations in technology. He has studied ecomonic cyles over thousands of years.
I first read Dent’s, The Roaring 90’s, in late 1998. At the time, I was intrigued, but discounted his work somewhat based on the conflict with other economist’s theories. The more I read about the macroeconomic climate we are currently in, the more I believe Dent’s theories.
Current U.S. demographics have driven the most productive period in our history with GDP growth at a steady 3% to 5% and low inflation. The current technological cycle as made for greater effiencies in market forces (suppliers know demand in more or less real time). The Baby Boomer generation (I squeaked in, in 1964) and all it’s demographic cohorts created this unpresedented expansion primarily through consumption, which makes up more than 70% of the US GDP.
Next year, the first of this generation turns 62, the average age of retirement now in America. What are the ramifications of 76 million people heading into retirement? Will they retire? I have an uncle who worked for McCormick Spice for 35 years, retired, then decided he was bored and went back to work with another spice company. Yet, my best friend’s parents are traveling the US with a truck and the 5th RV Camper and no plans for returning to work.
Heathcare is facing an onslaught of aging boomers reaching their prime heathcare consumption years. How will our hospitals, nursing homes, social services, etc. cope with the coming boom? (Especially with so many healthcare providers retiring also).
I’d love to spark some converation about this with someone in the heathcare industry.